Executive Summary

Despite continuing consumer caution, overall sales are growing; nevertheless, businesses remain uneasy amid elevated uncertainty. Against this backdrop, central banks continue to assess inflation dynamics, with the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again.

Although the trend in consumer confidence has mostly been down in recent months, there are some regional bright spots, with improvements in the United States and United Kingdom. That said, the US Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) did drop one point in October to 94.6, from a revised 95.6 in September. At the same time, the eurozone’s economic sentiment Indicator improved, despite near stagnation in industrial production and September’s decline in retail sales. Similarly, China saw marginal improvement in its consumer confidence index. In Brazil, consumer confidence remained below the neutral 100 mark, with Fundação Getulio Vargas’ (FGV) seasonally adjusted October figure stable at 87.5. Business confidence dropped slightly to 89.5 (from 89.9 in September).

Despite patchy consumer sentiment, retail sales have broadly held their ground, with expectations that they will also pick up during the holiday season. UK retail sales (excluding fuel) were 1.2% higher than a year earlier, suggesting that consumers remain willing to spend despite concern about the economic and financial outlook for the year ahead. In Russia, consumption continued to be supported by rising wages (average real monthly wages were up by 4% annually in August) and strong employment.

On a positive note, the US announced the removal of tariffs on certain imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador under new framework agreements, saying the move is intended to ease living-cost pressures at home by lowering retail prices for goods not produced domestically.

Efforts to end the war in Ukraine are ongoing with multiple strands of talks continuing between the US, Russia, Ukraine, and European countries in the run-up to the holiday season. Meanwhile, EU states had been working towards a plan to use frozen Russian assets to back a multibillion-euro loan to support Ukraine, which could run out of cash as early as next spring. In response, Russia warned Europe not to use its money and EU leaders eventually agreed a €90 billion interest-free loan for the next two years.

Among developed economies, inflation remains stable but varies across regions—around 2.0% in the eurozone, 3.0% in the US, and 3.5% in the UK. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% for the 12 months ending September, after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ending August. Core inflation in the US was up slightly, to 3.0% (annualized). In October, median inflation expectations decreased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.2% (from 3.4%). They remained steady at the three-year-ahead and five year-ahead horizons—both at 3.0%. In the eurozone, inflation eased to 2.1% in October. Core inflation remained stuck at 2.4%, and a stalled disinflation process in services represents some upside risk. Still, long-term inflation expectations were stable at around 2%. This picture, along with more hawkish communication by European Central Bank council members, suggests that the ECB will hold interest rates at 2.0%, while the bar for further policy adjustments remains high.

Surveyed emerging economies saw inflation in October remain mostly stable, with China and India moving toward no price increases. In Russia, however, inflation is somewhat sticky. The annualized rate, which describes recent price trends, has accelerated over the past two months, while inflation expectations exceeded 13%. In Mexico, annual inflation edged down to 3.6% in October from 3.8% in September, while India’s retail inflation eased dramatically to 0.25% in October, the lowest figure on record and down from 1.54% the previous month.

Central banks kept policy rates unchanged in November, maintaining a cautious approach as inflation continues to ease but remains uneven across regions. However, in December the Fed cut rates by an additional 25 basis points amid continued weakness in labor market data and stable inflation.

On the commodities markets, precious metals continue their ascendancy, with the index now 60% higher than at the beginning of the year. Gold is holding on to its strength despite softer momentum. At the same time, industrial metal prices were resurgent with copper and aluminum prices increasing. In contrast, oil prices continued to decline in November, reaching $60 per barrel. Food prices also fell toward the end of the year, with nearly all major sub-categories recording declines. This drop was particularly pronounced in India, where food inflation came in at –5.02% (deflationary).

Globally, both the manufacturing and services indicators were in expansion territory in many countries, with companies reporting growth in new business and more stable new export orders.

However, November saw the manufacturing sector across many economies struggling to return to expansion. India was again the standout performer, with the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) still deep in the expansion zone, albeit that the index declined to 57.4 in November from 59.2 in October. Both the US and UK PMIs ended in the expansion zone. In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in November 2025 (52.5 in October), the lowest in four months. In the eurozone, manufacturing was held back by higher tariffs, still-heightened uncertainty, and a stronger euro. Manufacturing production in Brazil fell slightly, with the Monthly Industrial Physical Production (PIM) Index dropping from 113.01 in September to 111.9 in October (versus the neutral 100 line). The slowdown was driven by diminished extractive production, which dropped 4.3%, while factory production was down 0.3%. On aggregate, however, August 2025’s results were 2% up on those for the same period last year. Meanwhile, Russia’s manufacturing sector has seen growth only in segments linked to the war effort and in the pharmaceuticals industry. Nearly all other manufacturing industries experienced declines. In Mexico, the Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5 in October, close to September’s reading of 49.6, indicating a marginal deterioration in overall operating conditions. The PMI has been below 50.0 for 15 of the past 16 months.

In contrast, services growth accelerated across the board, with India continuing to outpace other economies as its services PMI rose to 59.5, from 58.9 the previous month. In the US, the services PMI rose slightly to 55.0 (54.8 in October). Brazil’s Monthly Services Survey (PMS) revenue index rose to 127.3 in September from 125.8 in August (versus the neutral 100 line). This was mirrored in the volume index, which was up to 112.0 (from 110.6). The largest revenue increase was in audiovisual services (up 7.6% since August), followed by services to families (up 7.1%).

The employment picture varies by region. In the US, nonfarm payroll employment increased in September (+119,000) but has shown little change since April. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%—the highest level since 2021. In the eurozone, employment growth has moderated, growing by just 0.1% quarter over quarter in Q3. The job vacancy rate declined to 2.3%, one percentage point below its peak in Q2 2022. The unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in September, having remained around this level since the start of the year. Short-term indicators point to broadly flat employment growth in Q3.

The UK labor market is beginning to cool, but in an orderly way. Unemployment rose to 5%, though it continues to be low by historical standards. Joblessness increased across most age groups, but workers aged 50-plus saw a small improvement, with unemployment edging down to 3.1%. Job vacancies held steady at 723,000, still below pre-pandemic levels but no longer declining sharply. Overall, the labor market appears to be rebalancing rather than weakening abruptly.

In China, the overall surveyed urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in October (5.2% in September), while the youth unemployment rate eased slightly to 17.3% in October (17.7% in September). Brazil’s three-month moving average unemployment rate was stable at 5.6% in October, while Russia’s unemployment rate remains at a historically low level of about 2%. Mexico reached its second-highest number of formal jobs on record in October, with 22,639,050 people employed. A total of 198,454 formal jobs were created in October, making it the third-highest month for job creation in history. This brings the total number of new jobs in the country to 400,000 between January and October 2025, representing a 1.8% increase for the year. Meanwhile, total unemployment dropped to 2.6% in October from 2.7% in September.

Global equity markets rallied in November as inflation pressures eased and expectations of interest rate cuts strengthened. Bond markets, however, saw a modest upward move in global 10-year yields. In the UK, bond yields eased slightly across the curve—5-year at 3.9%, 10-year at 4.55%, 20-year at 5.3%—while equity markets were mixed, with the FTSE 100 up 1.3% as the FTSE techMARK 100 dipped 3.4%.

The equities market in India has proved resilient despite global volatility, with the SENSEX rising some 1.18% between November 3 and 25, even as broader one month performance remained largely flat. In Brazil, the Bovespa equities index trended higher in October, rising 2.3% in value; November results until the 21st were already up by 3.9%.

On the trade front, export growth strengthened across major economies, with gains broadening into late summer. China and Mexico led this trend, with 5.8% and 4.7% growth year to date, respectively, while Brazil remained flat and Russia lagged behind. The US and the eurozone experienced moderate year-over-year growth in imports, but other regions lost ground. Global port activity stayed near historical highs, even as containerized trade cooled after a strong summer, and global supply chain stress eased, stabilizing close to long-run averages through November.

Inbound spot freight rates also eased through November, cooling from mid-2025 highs as congestion cleared and demand softened. Outbound freight rates to Shanghai eased after June’s spike and stabilized through November as capacity adjusted.

In China, cross-border trade (imports and exports) registered a year-on-year growth rate of –0.3% in October, a significant drop from the 7.9% increase seen the previous month. Specifically, exports growth declined to –1.1% in October, from 8.3% in September. Meanwhile, imports growth also saw a deceleration to 1.0%, from 7.4% in September.

In a sign that trade relations may be stabilizing, China has suspended some export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth elements to the United States. The trade thaw follows talks between the presidents of the two nations in Busan, South Korea, on October 30. China has also reversed earlier measures, including export restrictions on various metals and super-hard materials, introduced in December 2024 in response to US curbs on semiconductor exports.

In India, the merchandise trade deficit widened significantly to $41.7 billion in October, driven primarily by gold imports ($14.7 billion), silver, and fertilizers. Negotiations around a trade deal between India and the United States have sparked optimism but face hurdles, including US demands for access to India’s bioenergy market. Brazil’s November trade balance (aggregate up to the second week) recorded a surplus of US $2.2 billion, according to preliminary data, down from US $6.9 billion in the full month of October. The smaller surplus was driven by a reduction in exports (US $14.3 billion in November, down from US $31.9 billion in October), accompanied by a drop in imports (US $12 billion in November, down from US $25 billion in October). Mexico recorded a trade surplus of US $606 million in October, driven primarily by a strong rebound in non-oil exports. Mexico has seen increased tension on the trade front because of three factors. The United States has intensified its pressure on labor, energy, and rules-of-origin issues; China is gaining economic influence in Mexico, which is generating friction with the United States; and the EU–Mexico trade relationship is making slow progress on finalizing the modernized agreement.
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Regional and Country Summary

Economic momentum across advanced economies remained mixed but broadly resilient. Inflation stabilized, albeit at different levels across countries. Central banks largely held policy settings unchanged in November.

United States

Longest-ever US government shutdown ends; August trade deficit falls; unemployment rises to 4.4%—highest since 2021.

The US Senate approved a funding bill (by a 60–40 vote) aimed at ending the longest federal government shutdown in US history. The compromise does not extend the healthcare subsidies central to the stalemate, but it does provide short-term funding for federal agencies and veteran affairs.

August exports reached $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than in July. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July’s imports. The monthly deficit decreased by 23.8% to $59.6 billion.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in September (+119,000) but has shown little change since April. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%—the highest level since 2021.

In the housing market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased slightly to 6.2% in October. Existing home sales rose 1.2% in October. During August, housing residential starts fell to 1,307,000 (below the revised July estimate of 1,429,000), an 8.5% drop. Completions in August were up to 1,608,000, an 8.4% increase from a revised July estimate of 1,483,000.

The industrial production index decreased slightly to 101.3 in August. S&P’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 51.9 in November 2025 (52.5 in October), the lowest in four months; the services PMI rose slightly to 55.0 (54.8 in October).

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% for the 12 months ending September, after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ending August. Core inflation was slightly up, to 3.0% (annualized). In October, median inflation expectations decreased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.2% from 3.4%. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead and five year-ahead horizons—both at 3.0%.

August’s retail and food services sales (adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences) were $732.0 billion, up 0.6% from July’s revised $727.4 billion. The Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) dropped one point in October to 94.6, from a revised 95.6 in September.

In October, the S&P 500 was up 2.3%, bringing the one-year return to 16.3%; the Dow Jones gained 2.5% over the month and was up 11.8% year to date. During October, the CBOE Volatility Index averaged 17.4 (16.3 in September).

The US Department of the Treasury announced that the United States will remove tariffs on certain imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador under new framework agreements, allowing duty-free access for items such as coffee and bananas. The administration said the move is intended to ease living-cost pressures by lowering retail prices for goods not produced domestically.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and member of the FOMC, signaled in an interview that he remains cautious about further interest rate cuts amid persistent inflation and data uncertainty.

Eurozone

Slow GDP growth trend confirmed in Q3; positive initial survey readings in Q4 contrast with weaker September; resilient, but slightly weaker labor market; subdued growth to continue in coming quarters; inflation remains around 2% target.

Seasonally adjusted Q3 GDP grew 0.2% quarter on quarter, up from 0.1% in Q2 and slightly better than expected. Short-term indicators point to a positive contribution from domestic demand, whereas net exports were more muted. The headline figure masks patchy performance across member states, with a boost to activity in France, while Italy and Germany stagnated, reflecting ongoing struggles in their industrial sectors amid elevated uncertainty. Private consumption and services likely strengthened. Meanwhile, manufacturing was held back by higher tariffs, still-heightened uncertainty, and a stronger euro.

Early Q4 survey readings have been positive, with the composite purchasing managers’ indicator (PMI) up to a 29-month high of 52.5; the Economic Sentiment Indicator also improved, despite near stagnation in industrial production and September’s decline in retail sales.

Employment growth has moderated after several years of solid performance, growing by just 0.1% quarter over quarter in Q3, echoing the Q2 situation. The job vacancy rate declined to 2.3%, one percentage point below its peak in Q2 2022. The unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in September, having remained around this level since the start of the year. Short-term indicators point to broadly flat employment growth in Q3.

The baseline forecast assumes gradual improvement in upcoming quarters, with overall 2025 growth projected at 1.3–1.4% and between 0.9% (Oxford Economics) and 1.2% (European Commission) in 2026. However, the outlook remains clouded by weaker global demand and heightened uncertainty, constraining exports and investments. Political developments and the evolution of global trade tensions will continue to play a decisive role in shaping macroeconomic performance. The recent trade deal with the United States has eased some uncertainty. Household spending is expected to remain the main growth driver, as fundamentals—such as a rise in real incomes and a resilient labor market (despite signs of softening labor demand)—continue to support consumer spending. However, still-low consumer confidence translates into higher savings and moderate growth. Monetary and fiscal policies remain broadly neutral to growth, with potential upside from a German fiscal stimulus.

Headline inflation eased to 2.1% in October. Core inflation is still stuck at 2.4% and a stalled disinflation process in services represents some upside risk. Still, long-term inflation expectations remained stable at around 2%. This picture, along with more hawkish communication by European Central Bank council members, suggests that the ECB will keep interest rates stable at 2.0%, and the bar for further policy adjustments remains high.

United Kingdom

The UK economy entered late 2025 with a mixed but gradually improving macro backdrop. Inflation is slowly easing, financial conditions are stabilizing, and some areas—particularly investment—show renewed momentum. At the same time, parts of the economy continue to face challenges, especially industrial activity and the labor market, leading to an overall picture of cautious resilience rather than outright weakness.

Growth in Q3 was modest but steady. The economy expanded by 1.2% year over year, broadly in line with its recent pace. Most major categories softened slightly, particularly household consumption, which slowed to 0.6% growth as higher living costs and rising uncertainty weighed on spending. The clear bright spot came from investment, which accelerated to 3.8% year over year—a notable improvement from earlier in the year and an encouraging signal for the medium-term outlook.

Corporate conditions showed tentative signs of improvement. Insolvencies declined from earlier highs, and although levels remain historically elevated, the improvement suggests that some of the most acute pressures have begun to ease. Firms still face a demanding environment, but the overall direction is more stable than in the first half of the year.

Inflation developments also offer a cautiously positive story. The headline CPI fell to 3.6%, continuing the disinflation trend of recent months. While food inflation remains elevated at 4.9%, its gradual slowdown since the summer is a welcome relief for households. Some headwinds persist—mortgage rates inched up to 4.59% in October—but the overall pressure on living costs is easing more noticeably than earlier in the year.

The labor market is beginning to cool, but in an orderly way. Unemployment rose to 5%, though it remains low by historical standards. Joblessness increased across most age groups, but workers aged 50-plus saw a small improvement, with unemployment edging down to 3.1%. Job vacancies held steady at 723,000, still below pre-pandemic levels but no longer declining sharply. Overall, the labor market appears to be rebalancing rather than weakening abruptly.

Household spending continues to hold up. Retail sales excluding fuel were 1.2% higher than a year earlier, suggesting that consumers remain willing to spend even as confidence softens. Survey data showed sentiment declining in November, with households concerned about the economic and financial outlook for the year ahead. This gap between spending and sentiment may narrow in the coming months, especially if labor-market conditions soften further, but for now the consumer sector remains reasonably resilient.

Financial markets reflected this more balanced environment. The Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4% in November, signaling patience as inflation moves steadily toward target. SONIA, the key overnight funding benchmark, has returned to its pre-pandemic range, a sign that short-term money markets are functioning more smoothly. Bond yields eased slightly across the curve—5-year at 3.9%, 10-year at 4.55%, 20-year at 5.3%—and equity markets were mixed, with the FTSE 100 up 1.3%, while the FTSE techMARK 100 dipped 3.4%. Overall, market conditions appear calmer and more predictable than earlier in the year.

Economic activities continued to slow in China; Russia’s economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances; India’s economy shows resilience with FY 2025–26 growth projected at 6.8%, driven by strong services and domestic demand; and inflation eased in Mexico.

China

In October, China’s economic activities continued to slow. Growth rates declined across industrial production, investment, retail sales, and trade.

China’s industrial output growth softened to 4.9% year on year in October, compared to 6.5% in September. Looking at individual sectors, manufacturing output slowed to 4.9% growth, dropping from a 7.3% expansion in September. The mining sector’s output growth declined to 4.5%, 1.9% down from September. In contrast, the utility sector’s output growth rebounded to 5.4%, compared with 0.6% in September.

Investment fell further in October, posting a double-digit contraction rate. Overall fixed-asset investment registered –11.2% year on year in October, down from the –6.8% reported in September. Contractions were recorded across sectors: Manufacturing investment growth dropped to –6.7% in October, from September’s –1.9%. Infrastructure investment growth slowed as well, down to –8.9% in October (compared with –4.6% in September). Real estate investment continued to weaken with a contraction of −24.1% (versus –19.8% in September).

The real estate market downturn persisted in October. On the demand side, floor space sold for new residential properties decreased by −20.8% year on year, down from –12.5% in September. On the supply side, the contraction in floor space started grew significantly to −29.9% year on year in October, notably lower than September’s –17.9%.

In October, new increased credit fell to RMB 0.8 trillion, from RMB 3.5 trillion in September. Meanwhile, total social financing reached RMB 437.8 trillion in October, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, versus 8.7% in September.

The overall surveyed urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in October (5.2% in September). The youth unemployment rate eased slightly to 17.3% in October (17.7% in September).

In October, cross-border trade (imports and exports) registered a year-on-year growth rate of –0.3%, a significant drop from the 7.9% increase seen the previous month. Specifically, exports growth declined to –1.1% in October, from 8.3% in September. Meanwhile, imports growth also saw a deceleration, falling to 1.0%, from 7.4% in September.

In a sign that trade relations may be stabilizing, China has suspended some export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth elements to the United States. First imposed on October 9, the controls had reduced the supply of materials used in semiconductors and military hardware, as well as lithium batteries. The trade thaw follows talks between the presidents of the two nations in Busan, South Korea, on October 30. China has also reversed earlier measures, including export restrictions on various metals and super-hard materials, introduced in December 2024 in response to US curbs on semiconductor exports.

India

Economy shows resilience with FY 2025–26 growth projected at 6.8%, driven by strong services and domestic demand; however, performance is now patchier as manufacturing and external trade weaken—a fall in the manufacturing PMI and widening trade deficit highlight this shift.

The HSBC India Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined to 57.4 in November 2025 from 59.2 in October, preliminary data show. The reading signaled softer operating conditions and marked a nine-month low, though it pointed to sustained expansion in output and new orders. The services PMI rose to 59.5, from 58.9 the previous month.

India’s infrastructure output stagnated year on year in October 2025, marking a sharp sequential deceleration. Crude oil declined by 1.2%, while refinery products rose by 4.6%. Natural gas declined by 5.0%, and coal output declined by 8.5%. Fertilizers climbed by 7.4%, while cement and steel grew at 5.3% and 6.7%, respectively. Electricity generation fell 7.6%. This represents a steep drop from September’s 3.0% growth, reflecting a sharp slowdown in the energy complex that forms a significant chunk of the industrial production base. US tariffs on Indian engineering goods have constrained exports, causing manufacturing sectors to lag behind services. Strong domestic demand persists, but supply-side disruptions from heavy rains created a structural bottleneck to growth.

India’s retail inflation eased dramatically to 0.25% in October, the lowest figure on record and down from 1.54% the previous month. The drop was driven mainly by a sharp fall in food prices, especially vegetables and oils, with food inflation at –5.02% (deflationary). This sustained decline keeps inflation well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, strengthening the case for potential rate cuts and signaling improved price stability for consumers. However, RBI maintained its FY 2025–26 consumer price index (CPI) forecast at 2.6%, maintaining a cautious outlook on transient food price effects. Despite global volatility, the Indian equities market has proved resilient, with the SENSEX rising some 1.18% between November 3 and 25, even as broader one month performance remained largely flat.

Equity market stability was supported by global liquidity prospects and optimism around a potential India–US trade deal. India’s merchandise trade deficit widened significantly to $41.7 billion in October 2025 (arising from $76.1 billion in imports and $34.4 billion in exports), driven primarily by gold imports ($14.7 billion), silver, and fertilizers. Negotiations around a trade deal between India and the United States face hurdles, including US demands for access to India’s bioenergy market. RBI has continued to take steps to manage liquidity, maintaining the policy repo rate at 5.50% and retaining a neutral stance following its review. The central bank has made use of its revised framework, which effectively discontinues 14-day Variable Rate Repo/Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR/VRRR) operations in favor of flexible shorter-tenor (primarily 7-day) operations, to fine-tune liquidity management.

Brazil

Stabilizing inflation and almost full employment are not enough to shift high-interest-rate scenario.

Inflation was down, touching 4.68% in October, compared with 5.17% in September. Inflation is tending toward the central bank’s upper target limit of 4.50%.

The three-month moving average unemployment rate was stable at 5.6% in October.

On the financial markets, the average monthly real–US dollar exchange rate was BRL 5.38 per USD in October (versus BRL 5.36 in September). The Bovespa equities index trended higher in October, rising 2.3% in value; November results until the 21st were already climbing higher, up 3.9%.

Consumer confidence remained below the neutral 100 mark, with the FGV’s seasonally adjusted October figure remaining stable at 87.5. Business confidence dropped slightly to 89.5 (from 89.9 in September).

Brazil’s manufacturing production fell slightly: The Monthly Industrial Physical Production (PIM) Index decreased from 113.01 in September to 111.9 in October (versus the neutral 100 line). The slowdown was driven by diminished extractive production, which dropped 4.3%, while factory production was down 0.3%.

The Monthly Services Survey (PMS) revenue index rose to 127.3 in September from 125.8 in August (versus the neutral 100 line). This was mirrored in the volume index, which was up to 112.0 (from 110.6). The largest revenue increase was in audiovisual services (up 7.6% since August), followed by services to families (up 7.1%). Both sectors also saw the biggest volume increase, up 7.8% and 7.2% respectively. The standout negative result was in aquatic transportation, which shrank 4.5% in terms of revenue and 4.9% in volume.

At the Banco Central do Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting on November 5, the Selic rate was held at 15% in a unanimous decision. Copom emphasized that the current level is related to “caution regarding the conduction of monetary policy,” and that the committee “will not hesitate in rerunning the adjustment cycle if it is appropriate,” as the current scenario is filled with “non-anchored market expectations, high inflation projections, resilience in economic activity, and a pressurized job market.”

November’s (aggregate up to the second week) trade balance recorded a surplus of US $2.2 billion, according to preliminary data, down from US $6.9 billion in the full month of October. The smaller surplus was driven by a reduction in exports (US $14.3 billion in November, down from US $31.9 billion in October), accompanied by a drop in imports (US $12 billion in November, down from US $25 billion in October).

On November 20, US President Donald Trump suspended 40% tariffs on certain Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa, and fruits, which had originally been imposed on 30 July. Further tariff exceptions to the initial list of 700 products include açai, tomatoes, mango, banana, and cacao. The suspension is retroactive and applied to products that reached US shores as of November 13.

Russia

Russian economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances—tight labor market and inflationary pressures affecting monetary policy; plan to end Russian war in Ukraine on the table.

Russia’s economy has continued to grow slowly in recent months, with the overall economic picture unchanged. The composite output index rose by 0.8% year on year in September and 0.9% year to date. Growth was slightly higher than in previous months, but there were no signs of broader economic recovery. After spiking in August, growth in retail sales volume slowed in September to 1.6% year on year. Full Q3 growth was recorded at 2% annually, and at 0.4% versus Q2, slowing from 1.3% in the previous quarter. Consumption continued to be supported by rising wages and strong employment, with the unemployment rate remaining at historically low levels of around 2%. The decline in the mining sector paused in September, but for January–September year to date, production was down by 2%. Meanwhile, growth in manufacturing this year has only occurred in segments linked to the war effort and in the pharmaceuticals industry. Nearly all other manufacturing industries experienced declines.

Heightened inflation started to ease—the headline figure ticked down marginally to 7.7% year to year in November (from 8% in September). However, inflationary pressures remain in place: the annualized rate, which describes recent price trends, has accelerated over the past two months. Inflation expectations also exceeded 13%. Moreover, prices will be boosted at the start of next year when one-time increases in VAT rates and administratively set rates for municipal services come into effect. Additionally, the high level of state-subsidized credit—accounting for about 20% of bank lending since 2020—increases demand pressures.

Because of inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has been forced to maintain high interest rates but was recently able to start the easing cycle. At its October meeting, CBR lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, reducing the size of the cut from the 100 basis points seen in previous months. CBR expects inflation to keep declining gradually. The central bank noted that the key rate needs to average 13–15% next year to achieve the 4% target by December 2026.

The latest efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine are based on a 28 point plan presented by the US. Some elements have been accepted by Ukraine and its European partners, while others remain major challenges for the negotiating parties to overcome—particularly those related to territorial issues, Ukraine’s future in NATO, and the presence of peacekeeping forces after the war ends.

Mexico

The economy experienced slower activity, but inflation eased, the peso remained stable, and formal employment grew.

The Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on November 6 in response to economic weakness and a third-quarter drop in GDP.

Annual inflation in Mexico decreased to 3.6% in October from 3.8% in September. On the currency front, the peso inched up against the US dollar, averaging 18.4 per dollar in October compared with 18.5 in September.

The Global Mexico Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 49.5 in October, close to September’s reading of 49.6, indicating a marginal deterioration in overall operating conditions. The PMI has been below 50.0 for 15 of the past 16 months. New orders continued to rise, marking the third consecutive month of increases, but at a slower pace.

The number of new export orders continued to fall, marking 20 consecutive months of decline in October.

In the labor market, total unemployment dropped to 2.6% in October from 2.7% in September. Mexico reached its second-highest number of formal jobs on record in October, with 22,639,050 people employed. A total of 198,454 formal jobs were created in October, making it the third-highest month for job creation in history. This brings the total number of new jobs in the country to 400,000 between January and October 2025, representing a 1.8% increase for the year.

Mexico recorded a trade surplus of US $606 million in October, driven primarily by a strong rebound in non-oil exports. In total, exports expanded to US $66.1 billion, up from US $56.5 billion in September, while total imports rose to US $65.5 billion (up from US $58.9 billion). Manufacturing continued to be the engine of export growth, offsetting the persistent decline in oil-related shipments. The non-oil balance swung from a small deficit in September to a significant surplus in October. Although the surplus is modest relative to monthly volatility, it signals a temporary easing of external pressures amid ongoing industrial softness and elevated import needs.

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The authors wish to thank Nick de Cent, as well as José Álvares, Roman Büschgens, Darien Ghersinich, Gabriel Marini, Marianthi Marouli, Tomasz Mataczynski, Frances Matamoros, Alejandro Morales, Beatriz Oliveira, Debdoot Ray, Erik Rong, Vanshika Tandon, Valeria Valverde, and Sebastian Vargas for their contributions to this article.

The invasion of Ukraine continues to have deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion are rapidly evolving and are inherently uncertain. As a result, this document, and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.