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Executive Summary
Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are weighing on business sentiment, while rising inflation expectations are leading to a fall in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, central banks in Mexico and the eurozone have moved to cut interest rates, and China has set an ambitious GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025.
Executives are now more cautious about future conditions and company performance than they were three months ago in the context of an increasingly uncertain global economic environment. Uncertainty around geopolitics and trade policy are the twin factors playing on respondents’ minds, McKinsey’s latest quarterly survey on business sentiment reveals. “ Economic conditions outlook, March 2025” reports that surveyed executives are now equally likely to see geopolitical instability and changes in trade policy or relationships as disruptive forces, while they report more cautious views on nearly every measure this quarter compared with the previous one—and this assessment applies both to the world economy and within their countries. By contrast, December’s quarterly survey found respondents’ expectations for the global economy to be more positive than negative and largely stable versus the previous quarter. For the first time since December 2022, more survey respondents expect global conditions to worsen over the next six months than expect improvement. Today, respondents are more likely to predict a near-term recession than they were in the final quarter of 2024, with 68% of respondents ranking a recession scenario in which rising uncertainty causes consumer sentiment to drop as the most likely outcome. The rapidly changing economic environment has led to some central banks playing a waiting game the see how inflation develops, while a couple of banks did cut rates, albeit to different degrees. The Bank of Mexico reduced the key interest rate by a further 50 basis points to 9.0% on March 27 (following a similar cut in February) in an effort to stimulate investment and support economic activity amid signs of a slowdown. Meanwhile, the ECB chose to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points on March 6. More generally, the trend has been for economies to reduce interest rates in recent months, with the exception of Russia and Brazil, which have been raising rates to combat high inflation. The uncertain economic and policy environment is weighing on growth expectations in the developed economies. European Central Bank (ECB) March 2025 staff projections indicate a weaker outlook for the euro area economy, which is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 (2025 and 2026 both revised down: –2 pp). The revisions reflect weaker export activity and ongoing investment challenges, which are partly attributable to higher trade policy uncertainties. There have been growth revisions in the UK too, with the Office for Budget Responsibility announcing it had halved its 2025 growth projection to 1% but upped its 2026 forecast to 1.9%, 2027 to 1.8%, 2028 to 1.7%, and 2029 to 1.8%. |
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Among the emerging economies, China’s industrial output saw a more moderate expansion of 5.9% year on year in the combined January and February figures, down slightly from the 6.2% growth seen in December. In March, the 2025 government work report unveiled its key development goals for the year, including an approximate 5.0% GDP growth. India’s figures remain robust, with growth stable at 6.5%, supported by strong domestic demand. All major forecasts see Russia’s GDP growth slowing significantly this year, even if production receives increased government spending, which is likely to be the main growth driver this year. |
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Both the manufacturing and services sectors showed growth in February, according to the JPMorgan Global Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). However, country-level PMIs indicate that, while growth in manufacturing appears to be continuing in most cases, the eurozone and UK are two exceptions. Nevertheless, the OECD’s composite leading indicators, which seek to provide a six-month outlook, remain above the long-term trend for industrial production across the main economies. In contrast, services sectors showed growth across all the surveyed economies in February. |
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Regional and Country Summary
Expectations of higher inflation have reduced US consumer confidence; EU launches Savings and Investments Union; UK announces welfare cuts and civil service rationalization.
United States Consumers remain cautious as expectations of higher inflation in coming years reduce confidence; Fed decides to hold interest rates; US trade deficit widens sharply. Consumer confidence dropped again in March, this time driven by concerns of renewed inflation. Households now expect inflation to average 5% over the next year and 4% over the next five years. These concerns may already be impacting spending, as retail sales in February were essentially flat in both real and nominal terms. Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose 2.8% year over year through February, down from 3.0% in January. Core inflation ticked up slightly to 3.1% (annualized). Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% at the one-year horizon, while remaining unchanged at 3.0% for the three- and five-year horizons. This backdrop reinforced the Federal Reserve’s “wait and see” stance. At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, where they have remained since December. The Committee also downgraded its economic growth forecast, projecting GDP growth of 1.7% for 2025—down 0.4 percentage points from its December estimate. The labor market showed modest changes: unemployment edged up slightly to 4.1% in February, while nonfarm payroll rose by 151,000. However, the overall number of workers has remained relatively stable over the past two to three years. |
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In the housing market, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate held steady at 6.6%. Existing home sales increased by 4.2% in February. Housing starts rose to 1.50 million units, up from 1.35 million in January, while completions declined to 1.59 million units.
On the financial markets, the S&P 500 declined by 1.4% in February, bringing its 12-month return to 16.8%. The Dow Jones fell 1.6% but remained up 12.4% year on year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaged 19.6 in February, compared to 16.4 in January. Trade data showed a sharp widening of the US trade deficit in January. Exports rose to $269.8 billion, while imports surged to $401.2 billion, pushing the monthly deficit up by 34% to $131.4 billion. Industrial activity showed mixed signals. The industrial production index edged up to 104.2 in February, from 103.5 in January. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 in March (from 52.7 in February), and the Services PMI declined to 52.9 (from 56.8 in December). On the policy front, the US Government enacted large scale changes across immigration, trade, and social programs introducing 25% tariffs on all steel, aluminum, and cars imported into the United States. “Reciprocal tariffs” were also implemented, impacting 180 countries and establishing a minimum tariff rate of 10%. |
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Eurozone
2024 GDP growth was 0.9%; headline inflation slowed to 2.3%; European Commission launches Savings and Investments Union strategy. In 2024 Q4, Eurozone GDP increased 0.2% quarter over quarter. Ireland and Portugal recorded the highest rises, at +3.6% and +1.5%, respectively, while Germany and Finland experienced the largest contractions, both by –0.2% compared to the previous quarter. For 2024, GDP rose by 0.9%, 0.5 percentage points above expectations. According to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 2025 staff projections, the euro area economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 (2025 and 2026 both revised down: –2 pp). The revisions reflect weaker export activity and ongoing investment challenges, which are partly attributable to higher trade policy uncertainties. In February, headline inflation was 2.3%, a slight slowdown compared to the previous month. This was partly due to a decline in energy inflation, which dropped from 1.9% to 0.2%. Core inflation stood at 2.6%, while services inflation was 3.7%. Producer prices have been increasing since November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8%. ECB projections show inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2025 (+0.2 pp), 1.9% in 2026 (unchanged), and 2.0% in 2027. For core inflation, ECB staff projections are: 2.6% in 2025 (+0.3% pp), 2.1% in 2026 (+0.2 pp), and 2.0% in 2027. |
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ECB cut key interest rates by 25 basis points on March 6, 2025. The decision to lower the rates, which guides the monetary policy stance, was driven by an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
The forward-looking indicator, Eurocoin was stable at 0.39 in February compared to the previous month. The industrial production index increased by 0.8% month on month and remained stable year on year. February’s composite PMI was unchanged at 50.2 from January, but March’s flash composite PMI ticked up to 50.4; the services PMI declined to 50.6 in February (January: 51.3); the manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6. European shares maintained momentum and reached a record high on March 3, with the defense sector still the main driver of this rally. On March 19, the European Commission launched its Savings and Investments Union (SIU), to expand citizens’ access to capital markets, improve financing for companies, and support economic growth and competitiveness in the EU. Meanwhile, Germany’s parliament approved a €500 billion infrastructure fund and eased debt brake rules to boost defense spending and state budgets. |
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United Kingdom
CPI inflation falls to 2.8% in February; OBR halves 2025 growth forecast; BoE maintains policy rate at 4.5% in March; Chancellor trails cuts and efficiency drive. The Office for Budget Responsibility has halved its 2025 growth projection to 1% but upped its 2026 forecast to 1.9%, 2027 to 1.8%, 2028 to 1.7%, and 2029 to 1.8%. Meanwhile, the OECD’s March 2025 Interim Economic Outlook for the UK projects 1.4% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain slightly above the 2% target in the range 2.3–2.7%. Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in January 2025, largely because of a fall in the production sector, after growth of 0.4% in December 2024. CPI inflation fell to 2.8% in February, down from January’s 3.0%, with clothing the main factor in the fall, according to the Office for National Statistics. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in February 2025 (0.6% in February 2024). Core CPI rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to February 2025 (January 3.7%). On March 20, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the policy rate at 4.5%. The seasonally adjusted S&P UK Manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low of 46.9 in February (48.3 in January). The downturn in UK manufacturing output and new orders deepened in February, leading to the steepest job losses since mid-2020. Output contracted as manufacturers scaled back production in response to lower new order intakes, subdued client confidence, and supply chain issues. Companies faced weaker demand from both domestic and overseas clients. At 51.0, the S&P UK Services PMI rose fractionally in February, up from January’s 50.8 and above the neutral 50.0 threshold for a 16th successive month. However, the latest reading was well below the long-run series average (54.3) and pointed to only a marginal expansion in services output. Meanwhile, new orders declined and the reduction in employment was the most significant since November 2020, linked to weak demand and sharply increasing input prices. |
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The S&P UK Construction PMI registered below the neutral 50.0 threshold for a second month running at 44.6 in February, down from 48.1 in January. The latest reading was the fastest downturn in construction output since May 2020, and signalled a steep decline in total construction activity. Residential building decreased for the fifth month in a row and was the weakest-performing area of construction activity in February.
For the period November 2024 to January 2025, growth in average total pay was 5.8%, while real total pay rose 2.1%. Unemployment was estimated at 4.4%. The UK economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 21.5% over this period, below year-ago estimates, and down in the latest quarter. The estimated number of vacancies in December 2024 to February 2025 was 816,000, a small increase of 1,000 on the quarter. Vacancies declined for the 31st consecutive period. On March 13, the government announced that, within two years, health service body NHS England is to be abolished. It will be absorbed by the Department of Health and Social Care in a move designed to reduce duplication, increase accountability, and free up funds for frontline services. On March 18, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall unveiled plans to cut £5 billion from the benefits bill by the end of the decade. The minister said, as part of the package, her department would spend up to £1 billion a year extra on helping people regain employment. In her Spring Statement delivered on March 26, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed the welfare cuts and announced a target to reduce the administrative costs of government departments by 15% by 2030, along with plans to cut some 10,000 civil service jobs. |
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In emerging economies, China’s industrial output saw more moderate expansion of 5.9% year on year; India’s growth remains stable at 6.5%; Mexico recorded sharp decline in exports.
China
Economic activities have presented a mixed performance in the first two months of the year. While investment expanded at a faster pace, industrial output growth and trade growth slowed. The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025. China’s industrial output saw a more moderate expansion of 5.9% year on year in the combined January and February figures, down slightly from the 6.2% growth seen in December. Looking more closely by sector, manufacturing maintained robust growth at 6.9%, albeit a deceleration from the 7.4% recorded in December. Meanwhile, the mining sector’s output growth quickened to 4.3%, up from 2.4% in December. The utility sector’s output growth held steady at 1.1%. Growth in investment activities accelerated. Overall fixed-asset investment recorded a 4.1% year-on-year growth across January and February (2.2% in December). Among sectors, manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 9.0% over the first two months (8.3% in December); infrastructure investment growth decelerated to 5.6% (6.3% in December); however, contraction in real estate investment continued, moderating slightly to −9.1% (−13.5% in December). The real estate market weakened in the first two months of the year. On the demand side, sales revenue in new residential properties declined slightly at −0.7% (+7.0% in December). On the supply side, floor space started fell −29.1% across January and February combined (−15.8% in December). |
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In February, new credit tightened to RMB 2.2 trillion, down from RMB 7.1 trillion in January. However, on a year-on-year basis, it surged by 49.6% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, total social financing reached RMB 417.3 trillion in February, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase, slightly higher than the 8.0% growth seen in January.
The overall surveyed urban unemployment rate increased to 5.4% in February (5.2% in January). The youth unemployment rate climbed to 16.9% in February (16.1% in January). In January and February, cross-border trade experienced a slowdown, with a year-on-year growth rate of −2.4% (+6.5% in December). Specifically, exports growth decelerated to 2.3% during the first two months (10.7% in December). Meanwhile, imports growth fell to −8.4% (+1.0% in December). In March, the 2025 government work report unveiled the key development goals for the year, including an approximate 5.0% GDP growth, a 2.0% consumer price inflation rate, and a surveyed urban unemployment rate capped at 5.5%. Additionally, the government introduced a 30-point special action plan, detailing initiatives aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These measures focus on enhancing household income, alleviating financial pressures, and promoting services consumption, among other goals. |
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India
Despite global economic headwinds, growth stable at 6.5%; PMIs robust, though trade challenges persist due to weak global demand. Despite global economic headwinds, India’s growth remains stable at 6.5%, supported by strong domestic demand. Inflation is under control, though core inflation remains sticky, necessitating careful monetary management. Trade challenges persist due to weak global demand, but a narrowing trade deficit offers some relief. While foreign investor outflows pose risks, robust domestic investment has provided resilience. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) has sought to stabilize liquidity and inflation expectations. Overall, India’s economy is well-positioned for growth, but uncertainties in global markets, financial volatility, and trade disruptions remain key risks. India’s economic activity slipped slightly in March as a pickup in manufacturing was offset by slowing services sector demand. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) improved from 56.3 in February to 57.6 in March, while the services PMI fell from 59.0 in February to 57.7 in March. This resulted in the composite PMI falling slightly from 58.8 to 58.6. |
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Manufacturing employment grew at the second-fastest rate since the PMI survey began. Services sector employment also expanded. Urban unemployment remains at a historical low of 6.4%.
CPI inflation fell to a seven-month low of 3.6% in February 2025, mainly due to a decline in vegetable prices. However, core inflation (excluding food and fuel) rose to 4.1%, indicating persistent price pressures. India’s goods trade deficit is down to a 42-month low of $14.05 billion, as imports of gold, silver, and crude oil dipped. Imports dropped by 16.3% in February, driven by decline in oil and gold imports. Merchandise exports also declined by 10.9% year on year in February, largely due to base effects and weak global demand for petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals, and gems and jewelry. India has maintained a measured response to the anticipated reciprocal tariffs likely to be announced by the United States. The country has already reduced tariffs on certain items, such as lowering duties on high-end motorcycles from 50% to 30% and on bourbon whiskey from 150% to 100%. Following a three-month period of market volatility, both the NIFTY and Sensex share indexes started showing signs of recovery in the last week of March, with improving foreign capital inflows and bargain buying lifting investor sentiment. Indian banks’ liquidity deficit stood at 204.2 billion rupees as of March 4, the lowest level since December 15. Liquidity conditions have been tight since mid-December largely due to tax outflows, dollar sales by the RBI in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupee, and lower-than-expected government spending. RBI continues to use open market operations (OMO), daily repo auctions, and dollar/rupee swaps to manage liquidity. These measures helped stabilize domestic liquidity despite capital outflows. |
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Brazil
Inflation up for the first time this year; composite PMI rose, following a decline at the start of the year; unemployment rate increases. Inflation rose to 5.06% in February (4.56% in January), up for the first time since December, and moving away from the Central Bank’s target upper limit of 4.50%. On the financial markets, the monthly average exchange rate was BRL 5.76 per US dollar in February (6.02 in January), with the real appreciating for the second consecutive month and reaching its highest level since October 2024. There is a risk related to the government debt profile, with growing sensitivity to high interest rates. This is because Brazil finances a high portion of its debt through floating-rate bonds crafted to appeal to investors during times of market stress, a tool its Treasury leant on heavily last year, leaving the debt portfolio with its worst composition in 20 years. Consumer confidence lingers below the neutral 100 mark and fell to 83.6 in February (86.2 in January) to reach its lowest level since August 2022. Business confidence slightly fell to 94.7 in February (95.0 in January), down for a fourth month running. Brazil’s manufacturing industry remained in expansion territory, with the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing up from 50.7 in January to 53.0 in February. The health of Brazil’s manufacturing industry improved substantially in February, as a stronger increase in new business intakes propelled production away from the contraction zone. This rise marks the strongest improvement since last September. Goods producers registered the fastest increase in sales since April 2024, which they attributed to more favorable demand conditions. International orders dropped, with a weaker demand from Argentina, the UK, and the US. |
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Business activity among Brazilian service providers rose in February, following a decline at the start of 2025. The services PMI rose to 50.6 in February (from 47.6 in January). The expansion was driven by a renewed improvement in client demand, which pulled new business out of contraction. Input costs rose steeply, prompting firms to hike selling charges. In both cases, rates of inflation were among the highest seen in 18 years of data collection. Food, labor, material, transportation, and utilities (electricity and water) were identified as key contributors to cost inflation.
Brazilian private sector output rose in February, after falling for the first time in 16 months at the start of 2025. The composite PMI rose in February, increasing to 51.2 (from 48.2 in January), similar to last December’s reading. February’s balance of trade registered a deficit of US $0.3 billion (US $2.2 billion in January), driven by a larger rise in imports (US $23.2 billion in February compared to US $23.0 billion in January) and a decrease in exports (US $22.9 billion in February versus US $25.3 billion in January). The three-month moving average unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in January (6.2% in December), up for the second consecutive time, and lower than the year-ago period (7.6%). February saw the Bovespa equities index fall, losing 2.6% in value. |
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Russia
GDP growth over full 2024, supported by fiscal expansion; structural imbalances increasingly weigh on growth in early 2025 and further outlook; inflation continues to pick up and interest rates remain high; current account surplus declined.
Preliminary figures (include source) showed Russian GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024, ahead of predictions of both Russian and international forecasters. The expansion was driven mainly by fixed investment, which rose by 10%, driven by support from government spending and subsidies. Russia’s consolidated budget expenditure grew by 18% last year, its fastest pace in 15 years. The budget deficit amounted to nearly 2% of GDP. The output growth indicator slowed significantly in January, to 3.4% year on year, from 5.2% in Q2; compared to December, the indicator fell 3.1%. Growth in consumer demand also appeared to fade, despite the rise in real wages, which grew by 9% last year. Nevertheless, preliminary figures show retail sales stagnating in January on a monthly basis while maintaining an annual growth rate of 5.7%, similar to Q4 data. The latest Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) survey of company and consumer sentiment indicates that the weakening economic trend could begin to stabilize in coming months. As a result, all major forecasts – Russian and international? - see GDP growth slowing significantly this year, even if production sees increased government spending, which is likely to be the main growth driver this year. For example, Oxford Economics increased its 2025 growth forecast by 0.1 points to 1.8%. However, monetary policy tightening will likely stifle growth in household consumption and private investment. |
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Preliminary data from the government? show that the January–February combined growth in federal budget expenditures amounted to 30%. Federal budget revenues increased by 6% year on year in January–February, with revenues from oil and gas contracting by 4%. The federal budget deficit for January–February swelled to 2.7 trillion rubles against 1.2 trillion rubles anticipated for the whole of 2025.
Inflation accelerated further to 10% in February, and preliminary March data suggest additional increases. In March, the CBR board decided to maintain the key rate at 21%, citing decreasing, but still-high inflationary pressures amid capacity constraints. The board assumes the current level of monetary tightness is sufficient to bring inflation to target in 2026. Russia’s foreign trade activity slowed, with the value of both exports and imports declining in recent months. Its current account surplus also reduced. The structure of Russian foreign trade, however, has largely remained stable, with energy fuels remaining the significant export product category last year, accounting for 61% of total exports. The outlook for net exports remains under pressure, as Russia has pledged compensation cuts in its crude production to make up for earlier non-compliance with the target. |
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Mexico
Inflation eases compared to previous year, opening door for rate cuts; exports declining rapidly. In February, the annual inflation rate rose to 3.8% (from 3.6% in January), driven primarily by an increase in the food and beverages sector. Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico cut the interest rate by another 50 basis points to 9.5%, aiming to stimulate investment and support economic activity amid signs of a slowdown. On the markets, the monthly average exchange rate in February was MXN 20.5 per USD (MXN 20.6 in January). Mexico’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing fell from 49.1 in January to 47.6 in February, signaling the fastest deterioration in operating conditions for five months and a continuation of a downturn that began in July 2024. The main reason behind February’s contraction was a continuing drop in factory orders. Notably, international sales decreased at their quickest rate in close to four years. In January, total unemployment edged up by 0.02 percentage points to 2.61%. Formal employment rose by approximately 119,000 workers, with the largest gains seen in the agriculture and construction sectors. |
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In January, Mexico recorded a sharp decline in exports and a slight drop in imports, leading to a trade deficit of $4.56 billion. Exports fell to $44.4 billion, down from $51.7 billion in December, while imports edged down to $49.0 billion from $49.1 billion. The decline in exports included a steep drop in oil shipments. Experts suggest this substantial drop reflects a combination of factors, including falling production levels and growing geopolitical uncertainty.
In recent weeks (February–March 2025), US proposals to impose tariffs on Mexican imports—largely in response to concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking—have remained a central point of friction between the two countries. After intense negotiations, Mexico and the US agreed to pause tariffs for 30 days. As part of the deal, Mexico committed to deploy 10,000 troops to its northern border to tighten immigration control and combat drug trafficking. At the same time, the US undertook to crack down on arms trafficking into Mexico. This action is expected to last until early April 2025, but no permanent resolution has been reached. Investor sentiment has grown cautious amid rising tariff risks. Major companies have suspended planned investments in Mexico, highlighting growing concerns. Mexico’s auto industry—which relies heavily on exports to the US—is particularly exposed. Analysts warn that, if tariffs are enacted, the country could face job losses, supply chain disruptions, and a potential recession. Reflecting this uncertainty, rating agencies such as Fitch have already revised Mexico’s growth outlook downward. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, announced that it’s pursuing a diplomatic resolution while also preparing contingency plans. |
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McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence (GEI) provides macroeconomic data and analysis of the world economy. Each monthly release includes an executive summary on global critical trends and risks, as well as focused insights on the latest national and regional developments. Detailed visualized data for the global economy, with focused reports on selected individual economies, are also provided as PDF downloads on McKinsey.com. The reports available free to email subscribers and through the
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The data and analysis in McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence are developed by Jeffrey Condon, a senior expert in McKinsey’s Atlanta office; Krzysztof Kwiatkowski is an expert in the Greater Boston office; and Sven Smit, a senior partner in the Amsterdam office. The authors wish to thank Nick de Cent, as well as José Álvares, Cristina Barrantes, Roman Büschgens, Darien Ghersinich, Yifei Liu, Marianthi Marouli, Tomasz Mataczynski, Frances Matamoros, Mario Rojas, Erik Rong, Vanshika Tandon, Valeria Valverde, and Sebastian Vargas for their contributions to this article. |
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The invasion of Ukraine continues to have deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion are rapidly evolving and are inherently uncertain. As a result, this document, and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.
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