Executive Summary

Artemis moon mission offers counterpoint to Middle East tensions, which are driving volatility and eroding economic sentiment; consumers subdued but retail sales hold up.

With the Artemis moon mission capturing global imagination recently, its perhaps no surprise that the space industry is among the sectors highlighted for their recent performance by a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). Over the past three years, 18 key industries, dubbed “future arenas of competition” by MGI, have grown roughly four times as fast as other industries in market capitalization and ten times as fast in revenue. These arenas are, by definition, the fastest-growing and most dynamic industries.

Among the top performers, AI software and services, cloud services, and semiconductors, plus digital advertising, cybersecurity, EVs, space, and shared autonomous vehicles all show growth consistent with the assumptions underpinning MGI’s higher-growth scenarios.

MGI has also coined the term “omniscalers” for a group of nine companies that are not only among the world’s biggest investors but also playing simultaneously across multiple arenas. Collectively, they generated over $700 billion in operating cash flow and invested more than $800 billion in R&D and capital expenditures during 2025.

According to the March 26 report “ The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition,” companies headquartered in the United States and the Greater China region account for 90% of arenas’ market value today. US companies lead in 14 of the 18 arenas in terms of market cap and ten in in terms of revenues, while China is gaining ground, especially when measured by revenue shares.

Meanwhile, back on earth, regional tensions are challenging the global economy, with the Middle East situation driving economic volatility. The Iran conflict—particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—has driven a surge in oil prices and heightened broader inflationary pressures. The American Automobile Association (AAA) reports that the average price of gasoline has risen to approximately $4 per gallon, up from $2.98 prior to the conflict. Other economies are likely to be harder hit, with the UK particularly vulnerable, according to the OECD, which has cut its 2026 forecast for UK GDP by 0.5 percentage points—down from its previous estimate of 1.2%. At the same time, inflation is also predicted to be higher than expected.

The latest McKinsey Global Survey tracking executive sentiment on the economy finds that geopolitical instability currently overshadows all other perceived economic risks. The survey was in the field when Middle East tensions escalated on February 28. Responses collected on and after that date were significantly less optimistic about both the global and domestic economies, although expectations for company growth remained primarily positive.

Unsurprisingly, energy prices have also become a significant focus. However, this was only seen in the responses received on and after February 28. For the first few days the survey was in the field, respondents were about equally likely to cite geopolitical instability and trade policy changes as a top risk to their countries’ economies, and energy prices weren’t a commonly cited risk. Then, geopolitical instability became the predominantly cited risk, and energy prices became nearly as common of a concern as trade policy changes.

Nevertheless, respondents remain optimistic about expectations for their own companies, with just over half of private-sector respondents expecting demand for their companies’ products or services to grow in the next six months—a similar number to last quarter. About 60% expect profits to grow, consistent with the past two quarters, the survey found.

Moving to the growth figures, global activity remains subdued and uneven. US real GDP growth for Q4 2025 was revised down sharply to an annualized 0.7%, while the ECB now expects eurozone GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2026. UK growth also remains weak, with GDP up only 0.8% year on year in January.

Among emerging economies, India continues to outperform but is beginning to show signs of moderation. Brazil’s economy expanded by 2.3% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024, while Russia recorded only 1.0% growth. Mexico’s economy grew 1.2% year on year in February, supported mainly by services.

Consumer sentiment remains subdued across most economies, even if retail sales have held up better than expected. Confidence improved modestly in the US, but deteriorated in the eurozone and remained weak in the UK and Brazil. After a strong January, retail sales momentum appears to be fading in many economies, although UK retail sales still rose by 2.3% year on year in February and China saw modest support from holiday spending and government incentives.

Central banks largely kept rates unchanged in March. The main exceptions were Brazil and Russia, which both cut policy rates by 25 basis points in response to weaker growth and easing inflation.

Inflation pressures, however, are beginning to rise again. Energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East pushed inflation higher in several economies. Consumer inflation increased in the eurozone, India, and China, while inflation remained stubbornly above target in the UK and rose further in Mexico.

Commodity markets saw significant volatility in March. Brent crude rose 15%, natural gas 27%, gasoline 34%, and jet fuel more than doubled, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over global energy supply. The rise in energy costs also pushed up food and fertilizer prices, while gold briefly reached a record high before retreating.

At the same time, manufacturing activity strengthened globally, reaching its highest level in almost four years, driven mainly by Asia. China’s industrial production accelerated to 6.3% year on year, while manufacturing PMIs in the US and China moved back into expansion territory. Services activity also remained relatively resilient, although momentum softened in India and Brazil.

Labor markets remain broadly stable. Unemployment has ticked up in the US and a few other countries, but generally remains low. The UK unemployment rate held steady at 5.2%, while eurozone labor-market conditions continued to hold up relatively well.

Financial markets weakened noticeably in March as investors reacted to higher energy prices and concerns over slowing growth. Equity markets declined across most economies, volatility rose sharply, and borrowing costs remained elevated.

Trade performance remained mixed. Export growth was strongest in the US, China, and Mexico, while import growth remained more uneven. The US trade deficit narrowed in January, Brazil’s trade surplus widened in February, and Mexico’s trade deficit narrowed sharply as exports rebounded.

Regional and Country Summary

US real GDP growth revised down by half for 2025; ECB projections see eurozone GDP growth slowing to 0.9% in 2026; UK year-on-year GDP growth in January unchanged at 0.8%.

United States

Q4 2025 real GDP growth revised down significantly to annual rate of 0.7%—half the previous 1.4% estimate; BEA says revision due to adjustments in consumer and government spending and exports.

In March, the S&P 500 was down 7.3%, bringing the one-year return to approximately 13.3%; the Dow Jones declined 7.4% over the month and posted approximately a 9.1% one-year return. During March, the CBOE Volatility Index closed at 30.0 (versus 19.9 in February).

The Federal Reserve held rates steady for a second straight meeting, at the 3.5%–3.75% target range.

January 2026 exports were $302.1 billion, $15.8 billion more than in December 2025. January imports reached $356.6 billion, $2.6 billion less than the previous month. The monthly deficit reduced by 25.3% to $54.5 billion.

On the housing market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased slightly to 6.4% in March. Existing home sales were up 1.7% in February. During January, housing residential starts rose to 1,487,000 (above the revised December estimate of 1,387,000), a 7.2% increase. Completions in January were up, reaching 1,527,000—a 4.8% increase from a revised December estimate of 1,457,000.

Non-farm payroll employment was down by 92,000 in February. The unemployment rate changed little at 4.4%.

The industrial production index increased slightly to 102.5 in February. S&P’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March 2026 (51.6 in January); the services PMI decreased slightly to 51.1 in March (51.7 in January).

January’s retail and food services sales (adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences) were $733.5 billion, down 0.2% from December’s revised $734.7 billion. The Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) increased to 91.2 from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.4% year over year in February—the same increase as in January. Core inflation rose 2.5% (annualized).

Conflict with Iran—particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—has driven a surge in oil prices and heightened broader inflationary pressures. The American Automobile Association (AAA) reports that the average price of gasoline has risen to approximately $4 per gallon, up from $2.98 prior to the conflict.

A partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security that started on February 14, following a congressional deadlock over immigration funding, left Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers unpaid and drove nationwide travel disruptions.

Eurozone

Growth lost momentum at start of 2026; mixed signals from high-frequency indicators still point to subdued activity, while disinflation and resilient credit offer some positivity; Middle East conflict has become a key source of downside risk to growth and upside risk to inflation.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 2026 staff projections see euro-area GDP growth slowing to 0.9% in 2026. This was revised down by 0.3 percentage points from December’s projection, mainly because escalating tensions in the Middle East have raised energy prices and uncertainty. The latest eurozone expenditure breakdown for Q4 2025 was still relatively supportive for the outlook, with household consumption up 0.4% and gross fixed capital formation up 0.6%. However, the ECB expects the weaker external environment and higher energy costs to weigh on activity in 2026. Near-term indicators also indicate cooling: retail sales declined in January, industrial production fell again, and consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in March, suggesting that households and firms are becoming more cautious.

At the same time, labor-market conditions have held up relatively well, with unemployment edging down, employment still increasing, and wage growth continuing to support real incomes—which should help cushion the slowdown. Credit conditions also provide some support. Adjusted loans to households grew by 3.0% year on year in January 2026, unchanged from December, while lending to non-financial corporations eased only slightly to 2.8% from 3.0%. The ECB’s bank lending survey also points to firmer loan demand, especially for housing, suggesting that financing conditions are no longer worsening materially even if business lending remains cautious.

The inflation picture has become more complicated again. Eurozone headline inflation rose to 1.9% in February 2026 from 1.7% in January, while core inflation increased to 2.4%. Services remained the main source of underlying price pressure, suggesting that domestic inflation has not fully faded even as energy continued to exert a negative contribution.

This helps explain why the ECB kept rates unchanged in March. While inflation is close to target, the ECB warns that the conflict could create renewed upside risks to inflation via energy prices even as it weakens growth, leaving policymakers with a more difficult trade-off.

Recent developments reinforce this more fragile backdrop. European policymakers have become increasingly focused on resilience and shock management, as renewed energy-market turbulence has tightened the link between inflation, growth, and policy. The implication is that the eurozone is still expanding, but with weaker momentum, higher uncertainty, and less room for policy support than earlier in the year.

United Kingdom

Growth remains weak and uneven, with the economy showing tentative signs of stabilization but still struggling to gain momentum; year-on-year GDP growth in January was unchanged at 0.8%.

The main support to activity continues to come from consumers. Retail sales rose by 2.3% year over year in February. Sentiment, however, remains cautious. Consumer confidence declined slightly in March and remains at relatively low levels, even though it is still above the lows seen last year. Households reported little change in their current financial situation, but expectations for the next 12 months deteriorated: consumers increasingly expect weaker economic conditions and higher inflation. This suggests that the recent improvement in spending may not be sustained if real incomes come under renewed pressure.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, while broader labor-market indicators continue to soften. Hiring intentions remain weak and firms appear increasingly cautious about expanding payrolls.

Inflation remains stubbornly above target. Consumer price inflation held at 3.0% in February, interrupting the earlier disinflation trend. Although intermediate goods prices continue to decline, prices for capital goods are rising and accelerating. Higher energy prices and transport costs linked to the disruption in the Middle East are expected to feed through in the coming months. As a result, businesses and households increasingly expect inflation to remain elevated over the coming year.

Against this backdrop, financial conditions continue to be restrictive. The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in March, balancing weak growth against still-elevated inflation. Markets had expected the next move to be a rate cut, but persistent inflation and rising energy prices have pushed those expectations further out. Long-term borrowing costs also remain high, with the 10-year mortgage rate stuck at 4.5% in February. This continues to weigh on housing activity, investment, and credit growth.

Financial markets weakened noticeably in March as investors became increasingly concerned that the combination of weak growth and sticky inflation could push the UK economy toward stagflation. Equity markets saw selloffs during the month, although they rebounded in early April and recovered around half of their losses. Government bond yields remain elevated as markets price in a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment.

The government’s Spring Statement avoided significant new fiscal support and instead emphasized fiscal discipline, reflecting limited room to loosen policy given still-high public debt. At the same time, businesses face additional pressure from higher labor costs and changes to business taxation coming into effect in April. Together with renewed geopolitical risks and higher energy prices, these developments reinforce the view that the UK economy is likely to remain in a low-growth, high-inflation environment over the coming quarters.

Mixed 2026 outlook for China; India showing early signs of growth moderation; Brazil cuts Selic rate by 0.25%.

China

Outlook for the coming quarters remains mixed. China entered 2026 on a firmer footing, but the recovery is still narrow and vulnerable to weaker global demand.

China’s economy entered 2026 with more momentum than most major economies, but growth is looking increasingly unbalanced. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% year on year over the course of January and February—its strongest pace since mid-2025—while the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) returned to expansion at 50.4 in March, after hovering near the 50 neutral mark for most of the previous quarter. However, the construction and real estate sectors continue to decline.

The recovery is being driven primarily by the supply side of the economy. Investment in manufacturing rose by around 8% year over year, with particularly strong growth in semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and other strategic industries. Infrastructure investment also remained firm at around 11%% year over year. By contrast, real-estate investment fell another 10.7% year over year in January–February; new home sales continued to decline and construction activity remained weak, preventing a broader rebound in domestic demand.

India

Economy remains relatively resilient amid Middle East conflict, supported by strong domestic demand and stable macro fundamentals, but growth momentum shows early signs of moderation. Rising geopolitical tensions are starting to weigh on external balances, cost pressures, and business sentiment, with near-term risks to trade, inflation, and financial conditions.

High-frequency sentiment indicators show that growth has cooled meaningfully in March. S&P Global’s HSBC Flash India PMI for March shows the Composite Output Index falling to 56.5 (from 58.9 in February), marking the weakest pace of growth in close to three-and-a-half years, alongside a material re-acceleration in input-cost and selling-price pressures (as described in the flash release). Consistent with this slowdown, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.8 (down from 56.9 in February), while the services PMI registered 57.2 (down from 58.1 in February)—still expansionary readings, but signaling softer sequential momentum.

Core infrastructure output (across eight core industries) decelerated to 2.3% year on year in February: crude oil (–5.2%), natural gas (–5.0%) and refinery products (–1.0%) all contracted, while steel (+7.2%) and cement (+9.3%) remained robust; electricity generation was modest (+0.5%).

Inflation is firming but remains moderate. Under the new Consumer Price Index series (base 2024 = 100), headline CPI inflation rose to 3.21% year on year in February, from 2.74% in January; meanwhile food inflation (CFPI) rose to 3.47% year on year, from 2.13%. Wholesale inflation also strengthened: annual WPI inflation touched 2.13% in February 2026 (January: 1.81%), with +0.25% month-on-month growth in the all-commodities index.

External and market conditions tightened into late March. Total exports (merchandise plus services) stood at $76.13 billion in February 2026 (+11.05% year on year) versus imports of $80.09 billion (+21.64%), implying an overall deficit of roughly $4.0 billion for the month. Financial conditions reflect this external pressure: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) weekly data show the 10 year G sec par yield at 6.85% (week ended March 20, 2026) and USD/INR at 93.35 in the same week.

Equity markets witnessed sharp and volatile corrections in March, with the SENSEX and NIFTY experiencing multiple steep declines—registering repeated drops of 2–3% in individual sessions.

Policy normalization remains anchored around “hold plus liquidity management.” The RBI kept the policy repo rate at 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance at its February meeting. In March, the central bank signaled active year-end liquidity management, announcing Variable Rate Repo (VRR) auctions of ₹75,000 crore ($7.99 million) (6-day) on 27 March and ₹50,000 crore ($5.32 million) (3-day) on 30 March, both reversing on April 2, 2026.

Overall, the March dataflow paints a picture of continued expansion with increasing dispersion: services still strong but easing, manufacturing momentum cooling sharply in the March flash read, and external/financial conditions tightening—making the upcoming April releases (March CPI/WPI, March trade, February industrial production) pivotal to confirming whether this is a temporary soft patch or the start of a more persistent slowdown.

Brazil

Central bank cuts Selic rate by 0.25% as inflation slows, while 2025 GDP indicates slackening economy.

In a unanimous decision on March 18, the Banco Central do Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to cut the Selic rate by 0.25% to 14.75%—having previously held the rate at 15% since June 2025. Some analysts were expecting a larger cut but Copom noted that, although the long period of contractionist policy was negatively influencing economic growth, recent Middle Eastern tensions called for caution. The next meeting takes place on April 28 and 29.

Inflation was down, touching 3.81% in February (versus 4.44% in January) and coming in below the central bank’s upper target limit of 4.50% for the fourth month in a row.
The three-month moving average unemployment rate edged upwards towards 5.4% in February, compared with January’s 5.2%. Real average incomes grew 14.6% in 2025, reaching BRL 2,316.00.

On the financial markets, the average monthly real–US dollar exchange rate was BRL 5.19 per USD in February (BRL 5.33 in January). The Bovespa equities index trended higher in February, rising 4.1% in value; however, performance has recently been slowing with the index down 4.6% as of March 16.

Consumer confidence stayed below the neutral 100 mark with FGV’s seasonally adjusted February reading slightly down at 86.1. Business confidence slowed slightly to 92.4. Construction confidence reached 91.5, down from January’s 94.0.

Brazil’s manufacturing production increased: the Monthly Industrial Physical Production (PIM) Index rose from 93.9 in December to 95.1 in January (still below the neutral 100 line). Factory production grew 3.1%, while extractive production dropped 6.7%. On aggregate, however, January 2026’s results were only 0.2% above those from the same period last year.

The Monthly Services Survey (PMS) revenue index decreased to 123.81 in January from 138.77 in December (but staying above the neutral 100 line). This was mirrored in the volume index, which dropped to 106.1 (from 119.5). The largest revenue decrease was in professional services (down 24.2% since December), followed by audiovisual and news services (down 18.6%). Meanwhile, audiovisual and news services volumes slid 19.7%, while the professional services segment decreased 24.3%. The standout positive result was in accommodation services, which climbed 11% in terms of revenue and 7.8% in volume.

February’s trade balance recorded a surplus of $4.2 billion, up from $3.8 billion in January. The bigger surplus was driven by a faster increase in exports ($26.3 billion in February, up from $24.6 billion in January) than the increase in imports ($22.0 billion in February, up from $20.8 billion in January).

Russia

GDP growth improved towards end of 2025 due to transient factors; early 2026 sees drop in activity; signs of cooling in labor market; interest rate cuts continue despite jump in inflation in early 2026; loose fiscal policy stance.

Official data confirmed GDP expansion of just 1% year on year in 2025. That implies acceleration of sequential GDP growth to 1.2% year on year (seasonally adjusted) in Q4 from 0.6% in Q3. Similar growth dynamics are expected for 2026, although some sources forecast technical recession. Private consumption will remain the main growth driver, while exports will suffer from sanctions. On the downside for the consumer environment, the government will prioritize military investments over social spending.

Activity has lost support from several temporary factors that had buoyed demand at the end of 2025. The total output indicator saw a sharp decline in January—by 10% monthly and by 3% in annual terms—indicating a potential sequential recession in Q1 2026. This has largely resulted from a slump in retail sales after frontloading of purchases ahead of increasing value-added tax (VAT) and the car scrappage fee at the start of this year. Industrial production remained stable compared with the final months of 2025, after significant gains in Q4. The breakdown shows that this was mainly driven by production of metal goods, transportation vehicles, and electronics, indicating a surge in production of arms and materials for the armed forces.

The volume of mining output was nearly flat and did not seem to be affected by new US sanctions against top Russian oil producers enacted in late November. Business sentiment implies more moderate domestic demand to continue in coming months.

The central bank reported signs of cooling in the labor market. According to surveys, enterprises observe shrinking labor shortages and are planning more moderate wage increases. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at historical lows, and wage growth is still outpacing labor productivity.

Headline inflation rose to 6% in January–February, from 5.6% in December. Average annualized price growth for the first two months of 2026 was 10%, compared with 4.5% in Q4 2025. In February, sequential price growth slowed significantly as the effects of one-off factors seen at the start of the year faded away. Excluding these factors, underlying inflation is generally assessed at 4–5% in annualized terms. Russia’s central bank looked beyond one-off price hikes in early 2026 and continued its interest rate cutting cycle, bringing the rate down by 50 basis points to 15%. Still, the bank acknowledges pro-inflationary risks, such as elevated inflation expectations, that have changed little in recent months.

Federal budget data revealed a weaker fiscal position in January, with revenues down by 6% annually. A difficult beginning of the year was a consequence of lower activity and the wide Urals discount to Brent crude. However, this will likely be offset by increasing oil and gas prices amid turmoil in the Middle East.

Mexico

Mexico’s growth remains limited and service-driven, with rising inflation, stable policy rates, strong labor demand, peso appreciation, and weaker trade.

The national statistics institute estimates that economic activity grew 1.2% year on year and 0.1% month on month in February 2026. On a monthly basis, services rose 0.2%, whereas industrial activity remained unchanged, indicating that overall growth was driven primarily by services amid persistent industrial softness.

Annual inflation rose to 4.0% in February from 3.8% in January. Preliminary data show 4.6% inflation in early March, the highest since 2024. The increase reflects a combination of supply-side pressures in food and energy prices, alongside persistent underlying inflation in the services sector, contributing to continued lingering inflation. The Bank of Mexico held its policy rate at 7.0% in February and lowered it to 6.8% on March 27, 2026.

On the financial markets, the Mexican peso appreciated modestly against the US dollar, averaging MXN 17.2 per USD in February, compared to MXN 17.7 per USD in January. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stood at 47.1 in February, below the 50 threshold for a sixth consecutive month and signaling ongoing contraction. However, both new orders and output declined at a slower pace compared with January (46.3), suggesting a partial easing in the rate of deterioration.

Labor market conditions remained stable, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 2.6% in February. Formal employment continued to expand, with 182,778 jobs added between January and February, bringing total formal employment to 22.7 million.

On the external front, Mexico recorded a $0.5 billion trade deficit in February 2026, significantly down from January’s $6.5 billion deficit, as exports grew faster than imports. In January, exports fell to $48.0 billion from $60.7 billion in December, while imports declined to $54.5 billion from $58.2 billion, driving the wider deficit. In February, exports rebounded to $56.9 billion and imports rose to $57.3 billion, leading to a significant improvement in the trade balance.

Over the past year, the government has progressed implementation of Plan México by strengthening coordination between federal and state investment committees and deploying initial policy tools to support nearshoring. This includes the creation of investment promotion structures across all states, improved project identification mechanisms, and targeted measures such as tax incentives, financing support, and sector-specific industrial policies. These efforts have coincided with strong foreign direct investment inflows—reaching record levels in 2025—although the majority reflects reinvested earnings rather than new greenfield projects, and the translation of announced investment into realized activity remains gradual amid persistent bottlenecks in energy, infrastructure, and project execution.

Against this backdrop, Mexico’s investment portfolio under Plan México has expanded to approximately $406 billion, comprising over 2,500 identified projects across key sectors. The initiative aligns with the government’s broader objective of raising total investment to above 25% of GDP by 2026, supported by nearshoring opportunities in sectors such as automotive, electronics, and semiconductors.

McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence (GEI) provides macroeconomic data and analysis of the world economy. Each monthly release includes an executive summary on global critical trends and risks, as well as focused insights on the latest national and regional developments. Detailed visualized data for the global economy, with focused reports on selected individual economies, are also provided as PDF downloads on McKinsey.com. The reports available free to email subscribers and through the McKinsey Insights App. To add a name to our subscriber list, click here. GEI is a joint project of McKinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice and the McKinsey Global Institute.

Shubham Singhal is the Chair of McKinsey's Global Institute and a senior partner in the Detroit office;  Arvind Govindarajan is a partner in the Boston office. The data and analysis in McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence are developed by Jeffrey Condon, a senior expert in McKinsey’s Atlanta office;  Krzysztof Kwiatkowski  is an expert in the Boston office.

The authors wish to thank Nick de Cent, as well as Masud Ally, José Álvares, Roman Büschgens, Darien Ghersinich, Gabriel Marini, Tomasz Mataczynski, Frances Matamoros, Alejandro Morales, Beatriz Oliveira, Debdoot Ray, Erik Rong, Vanshika Tandon, Valeria Valverde, and Sebastian Vargas for their contributions to this article.

The invasion of Ukraine continues to have deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion are rapidly evolving and are inherently uncertain. As a result, this document, and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.